Construction of risk identification model for the

ERP system implementation risk identification model construction

ERP has become a synonym for the construction of enterprise management informatization in China. The implementation scheme adopted by most enterprises is the mode of "mature suite software + personalized customization development". As an advanced integrated management application software, ERP has the characteristics of large investment, high technical content, difficult implementation and wide coverage. From the perspective of the implementation of ERP system in Chinese enterprises in recent 20 years. Only 10% to 20% of the projects were successfully implemented, which fully shows that there are huge risks in the implementation of ERP system. The existing ERP system implementation risk management system in China is very imperfect, and the practice of ERP system implementation risk management is only in the initial and exploratory stage. The literature on the establishment of ERP system implementation risk indicators and risk evaluation research usually only describes the principles of indicator establishment, lacks scientific basis for establishment, and has the characteristics of strong subjectivity in the establishment of indicators. As the preliminary work of implementing risk management in ERP system, risk identification is also the most critical step. Therefore, the research on the process and method of risk identification in ERP system implementation has important theoretical value and practical significance. Using the theory and method of complex system for reference, this paper applies the hierarchical holographic modeling method, fishbone diagram analysis method and CMMI to the research of ERP system implementation risk identification, studies the process of risk factor identification, constructs the risk matrix model of ERP system implementation, improves the basic theory of ERP system implementation risk management and control, and provides practical guidance for enterprise ERP system implementation risk management

1 typical risk identification ideas and methods

related to the research on risk management of ERP system implementation is mainly the research on software development risk management. Based on personal risk management experience, expert experience and statistical data, Boehm puts forward a list of 10 risk sources for management information system development, and lists several important risk factors that may appear according to this list of risk sources; Marvin put forward the idea of risk identification based on classification. He believed that the risks of software development projects are constantly changing, and the risk list is a static description of the risk structure. Therefore, the traditional method is not enough to truly reflect the status of risks. He constructed a classification tree according to the source of risks, which is divided into three levels, and the top level is divided into three nodes, "product engineering", "development environment" and "scheme constraints", Supplemented by the supporting detailed questionnaire, the risk identification process of software development projects becomes the process of pruning and quantifying the classification tree. This idea improves the flexibility of identification and weakens the structure of identification. Haimes applied HHM theory to the risk analysis of software development projects. He divided complex software development projects into components, subsystems and other levels, and comprehensively analyzed software development projects from the perspectives of time dimension, tool dimension, method dimension, human resource dimension and so on

the tools used by foreign countries for risk identification of software development include decision tree, stage risk report, risk file table, classification structure, condition conversion consequence diagram, etc. Foreign countries have applied the risk identification method of it software development to the implementation of ERP system and achieved some research results, but the research on the theoretical management of the implementation risk of ERP system in China is still in its infancy, the risk practice is in the process of exploration, and the research on the process and method of risk identification needs to be further deepened

2 ERP system implementation risk identification process and method

erp system implementation belongs to it project, but it is different from software development, focusing on the implementation process and application, and ERP system is a complex social technology system, involving all levels of enterprise management. For manufacturing enterprises. Its implementation cycle is long, difficult and expensive, and if the implementation fails, it will have a huge impact. Therefore, a more comprehensive and targeted risk identification process and method are needed

2.1 ERP system implementation risk identification process

erp is a set of software system and management system. It is also a set of advanced management ideas. Its inherent complexity and uncertainty determine that the implementation of ERP system will inevitably cause various risks. The establishment of risk identification model includes three processes: risk reference, risk analysis and risk matrix establishment. Risk reference refers to the implementation risks summarized from the ERP system implementation of software suppliers, consulting companies, supervision companies and benchmarking enterprises in the same industry, so as to establish a preliminary risk list; The risk analysis is based on the preliminary risk list. According to the enterprise ERP system implementation objectives, implementation plans, implementation processes, risk management objectives, time requirements, capital requirements, talent requirements, project management requirements and other enterprise characteristics. The hierarchical holographic model is used to describe the complex ERP system implementation project. The fishbone diagram method is used to analyze the risk factors in the implementation of ERP system; The establishment of risk matrix is based on the CMMI milestone idea to determine the classification basis. The process of classification and induction in the form of two-dimensional tables

2.2 hierarchical holographic modeling method

holographic technology comes from photography technology and is used to comprehensively display photos from a multi-dimensional perspective. Hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) is based on large-scale complex systems. It is a part of complex system theory. HHM is used to describe the complex system as a multi-level and hierarchical decision-making process. It uses the combination of hierarchical overlapping coordination and hierarchical multi-objective optimization to expand the modeling scope of the complex system from a single plane model to a multifaceted holographic model. The purpose is to show the content and different characteristics of the complex system from many aspects, perspectives and dimensions

2.3 fishbone diagram analysis method

fish bone fig (FBF) was proposed by Professor Shin Ishikawa of the University of Tokyo, Japan in 1953, and was first used in the analysis of factors affecting product quality in industrial production. Because its shape is like a fishbone, it is called a fishbone diagram, also known as Ishikawa diagram, cause and effect diagram, characteristic factor diagram, and branch diagram. It has been transplanted and applied to many fields, such as production, management, operation, risk and so on, and has become an important analysis method. The general drawing process of fishbone chart is divided into four processes: investigation, problem determination, cause analysis and drawing

2.4 Capability Maturity Model Integration

Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) was developed by the American Institute of software engineering. It is an important reference factor to measure the software development management level of software companies. The purpose is to strengthen the process management of software development projects, reduce risks and improve the success rate, It has become the de facto standard for the improvement of software development process all over the world. CMMI defines key process activities, establishes standards and specifications, and establishes milestone concepts. Hold a milestone meeting at the planned time point of the project to check the key activities and clarify the completion status of the development work, so as to improve the success rate of software development

3 repeated holographic model construction of ERP system implementation

erp system implementation investment is large, involving many enterprise resources such as management thought reform, business process reorganization, data integration, capital budget, employee performance, computer hardware, software, as well as external resources such as ERP software suppliers, consulting companies, supervision companies, etc., which belongs to a typical complex system engineering. In the following, HHM method is used to describe the content and resources contained in the implementation project of complex ERP system from five different sub domains, as shown in Figure 1

Figure 1 ERP system implementation level holographic model

implementation process sub domain includes three stages: project approval, implementation and operation improvement. The three-stage division method is different from the five stage method in traditional software engineering, which is closer to the actual situation of enterprise ERP system implementation. The project approval stage mainly includes enterprise internal investigation, determination of informatization objectives, manufacturer selection, planning and decision-making; The implementation phase mainly includes enterprise modeling, business process optimization, and basic data management; The operation improvement stage mainly includes system operation and maintenance and later improvement. The system resource sub domain describes the implementation of ERP system from the internal and external resources of the enterprise. ERP implementation involves a wide range of information resources and complicated contents, which is not easy to grasp, but it is also an important factor affecting the successful implementation of ERP system. The functional module sub domain is mainly analyzed from the perspective of ERP subsystem, and the implementation difficulty of different subsystems is different. The human resources sub domain analyzes the implementation of ERP system from the different types of personnel involved. The implementation of ERP system not only involves relevant personnel within the enterprise, but also requires the full support of implementation consultants and consultants from different companies, as well as the objective evaluation and guidance of review experts. The project management sub domain is analyzed from the perspective of the project. It is necessary to strengthen the management of the quality, documents, progress, communication, training and other contents of the implementation of ERP system

4 fishbone diagram of risk factors in ERP system implementation establishing a

hierarchical holographic model is a powerful weapon for analyzing complex ERP system implementation projects. However, due to multiple angles and levels, the content is extremely complex, and there are cross relationships, it is very difficult to thoroughly sort out the possible multi-level risk factors in each sub domain of ERP system implementation hierarchical comprehensive model, and to obtain a set of risk factors with strong operability and reasonable structure, The paper creatively adopts the hierarchical fishbone diagram analysis method, analyzes it like peeling bamboo shoots, and constructs a huge multi-level risk factor fishbone diagram. However, due to space limitations, it only takes the implementation risk of ERP system, implementation process risk, and manufacturer selection risk as examples to construct a three-level fishbone diagram to analyze possible risk factors, and the analysis process of risk factors in other sub domains is the same

Figure 2 fishbone diagram of ERP system implementation risk analysis

Figure 2 shows that the implementation risk of ERP system can be analyzed from five aspects: implementation process risk, system resource risk, function module risk, human resource risk and project management risk. Figure 3 shows that the implementation process risks can be analyzed from the three stages of project approval, implementation and operation ④ import replacement trend improvement, and the three stages of risks are subdivided into 21 subordinate risk factors. Figure 4 shows that the manufacturer selection risk includes ERP manufacturer selection risk, hardware manufacturer selection risk, supervision company selection risk and consulting company selection risk. Among them, ERP manufacturer selection risk is subdivided into software quality risk, supplier strength risk, supplier consulting service risk and cost risk, which are evaluated by 24 indicators. Practice has proved that it is very feasible to analyze the implementation risks of ERP system by levels with fishbone diagram method. The level is clear and the derivation process is reasonable, which lays a solid foundation for the later establishment of risk matrix, risk evaluation, risk decision-making and risk control

5 milestone establishment of ERP system implementation based on CMMI thought

erp system implementation is different from the development of ERP software, but in order to strengthen the risk management of ERP system implementation and improve the success rate of implementation, we can learn from CMMI thought, establish the milestone of ERP system implementation, and clarify the key activities. On the one hand, it provides a basis for the classification of risk factors in the implementation of ERP system, and at the same time, it analyzes the current status, carries out risk evaluation, and formulates corresponding measures on the milestone checkpoint, so as to reduce risk losses. Through interviews with many experts from ERP software suppliers, consulting companies and enterprises that have implemented ERP, six milestones are determined, including the project approval stage, ERP software selection, business process optimization, basic data sorting, system switching, operation and maintenance, which belong to the three implementation stages of project approval, implementation and operation improvement. Determine seven key activities: organization and plan, system investigation, manufacturer selection, ERP implementation training, enterprise modeling and management reform, project management, implementation environmental analysis and human resource management. Leg prostheses are made of carbon